Print desk·2026-08-26.md·.md
Waymo vs Tesla: different books, same decade
Robotaxi rides, still small against Alphabet. The product is the mile without a driver. Cars first. Energy growing. FSD and robotaxis are the option.
Waymo leads on Ride revenue (40%). Tesla leads on Automotive (80%). The seat follows the slice that pays.
The mix
Hover a slice
- Ride revenue40%—
- Parent / other60%—
- Automotive—80%
- Energy—12%
- Services / other—8%
- WaymoTesla
Robotaxi rides, still small against Alphabet. The product is the mile without a driver.
Pays: Riders in the cities that are live. Alphabet in the meantime.
Builds: AV research, ops, and the people who keep the fleet on the road.
Cars first. Energy growing. FSD and robotaxis are the option.
Pays: Car buyers. Energy customers. Future robotaxi riders.
Builds: Vehicle, Autopilot, energy, Optimus. A lot of manufacturing IC.
The seat
Do not treat Waymo and Tesla as one market. AV research, ops, and the people who keep the fleet on the road. That is not Vehicle, Autopilot, energy, Optimus. A lot of manufacturing IC. Name the book before the interview.